Run your numbers
Loaded with Michigan figures: the Northern Crescent ERS 2025 cost budget, the NASS 2022–2026 average yield and the 2026 state cash rent. Swap in your own records. Nothing entered here leaves your browser.
What the assumptions produce
Required average price per bushel at the entered yield.
All entered per-acre costs combined.
Total cost across the entered acres.
Entered acres multiplied by expected yield.
Compare your result with the 2025 marketing-year Michigan price received.
What an acre of Michigan wheat costs
ERS budgets by region, not state. 100% of Michigan's wheat acres sit in the Northern Crescent region, so that is the budget used here. Per-bushel figures divide by the 86 bu average yield.
| Line (2025) | $/acre | $/bu |
|---|---|---|
| OperatingSeed | $30 | $0.35 |
| OperatingFertilizer | $113 | $1.31 |
| OperatingChemicals | $27 | $0.31 |
| OperatingCustom services | $19 | $0.22 |
| OperatingFuel, lube & electricity | $13 | $0.15 |
| OperatingRepairs | $35 | $0.40 |
| OverheadMachinery & equipment capital recovery | $144 | $1.68 |
| OverheadUnpaid (family) labor | $22 | $0.25 |
| OverheadHired labor | $2 | $0.03 |
| OverheadTaxes & insurance | $7 | $0.08 |
| OverheadGeneral farm overhead | $11 | $0.13 |
| LandCash rent (NASS 2026) | $157 | $1.83 |
| Total | $587 | $6.83 |
Looking ahead: ERS forecasts U.S. wheat operating costs at $169/acre for 2026, 3.8% above the 2025 U.S. actual of $163.
How the floor moves with yield
The same $587 cost stack spread over different yields. A short crop raises the floor even when nothing else changes.
| Yield case | bu/acre | Full cost | Cash cost | $/acre at $5.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% short | 68.8 | $8.54 | $5.83 | −$234 |
| 10% short | 77.4 | $7.59 | $5.18 | −$189 |
| 2022–2026 average | 86 | $6.83 | $4.67 | −$145 |
| 10% above | 94.6 | $6.21 | $4.24 | −$101 |
| 2026 final | 87 | $6.75 | $4.61 | −$140 |
Michigan wheat yield and price history
| Year | Yield, bu/acre | Price received | Planted acres |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 87 | — | 490,000 |
| 2025 | 90 | $5.14 | 530,000 |
| 2024 | 87 | $5.55 | 400,000 |
| 2023 | 83 | $6.28 | 600,000 |
| 2022 | 83 | $7.71 | 460,000 |
| 2021 | 81 | $6.24 | 610,000 |
| 2020 | 75 | $5.32 | 490,000 |
| 2019 | 71 | $5.21 | 550,000 |
| 2018 | 76 | $5.08 | 510,000 |
| 2017 | 79 | $4.54 | 480,000 |
Price received is the NASS marketing-year average for the state; — = not yet published.
Wheat break-even, top 15 states
Lowest full-cost floor first. Michigan ranks #1.
- 1Michigan$6.83
- 2Ohio$7.00
- 3Kentucky$7.07
- 4Idaho$7.09
- 5Illinois$7.79
- 6Missouri$7.85
- 7North Dakota$8.28
- 8Minnesota$8.38
- 9Oregon$8.51
- 10South Dakota$9.53
- 11Kansas$9.66
- 12Washington$10.14
- 13Texas$10.81
- 14Montana$10.86
- 15Oklahoma$10.92
Other Michigan crops
Reporting on wheat and farm debt
Plains Wheat Collapse Smallest Crop Since 1970s
Drought devastates hard red winter wheat production across Kansas, Colorado, and the Oklahoma panhandle, with crop down 41% and farm economics facing crisis.
Ukraine Crisis Dims Hopes for US Wheat Prices
As Russia escalates attacks on Ukraine's grain corridor, US wheat farmers face price chaos from a war they can't control. Global market shocks keep reshaping harvest season earnings.
Winter Wheat Crop Collapses to 60-Year Low Amid Plains Drought
USDA forecasts winter wheat production down 25% to smallest crop since 1965 as severe drought devastates prime growing regions across the Great Plains.
Where these numbers come from
- Costs per acre come from the USDA ERS Commodity Costs and Returns accounts for 2025, the latest year with actual (not forecast) figures. ERS reports by Farm Resource Region, not by state. Each state uses the region that holds at least half of its planted acres for that crop, measured from NASS county acreage and the ERS county-to-region file. If no region with an ERS budget clears half, we use the U.S. average and say so.
- Overhead is ERS's allocated overhead minus its land charge: machinery and equipment capital recovery, unpaid family labor, hired labor, taxes and insurance, and general farm overhead. The cash-cost floor keeps only operating costs and rent and drops all of overhead: roughly what it takes to pay this year's bills, not to replace the machinery.
- Land is the NASS state average cash rent for cropland from the Cash Rents Survey, in place of ERS's regional land charge. Owned ground carries an opportunity cost too, so we charge rent either way.
- Yield is the five-year average of NASS final state yields from Quick Stats. NASS reports yield per harvested acre and ERS reports costs per planted acre, so where acres get abandoned (dryland wheat especially) the real floor sits higher than shown. Current-year NASS forecasts are shown for context and are not used in the averages.
- Price is the NASS marketing-year average price received in the state. It is what farmers were paid on average, not a forecast and not your local basis.
- A state average is not your farm. Use your own yields, inputs and rent in the calculator. This is a planning estimate, not financial, lending or marketing advice.
Data last refreshed October 9, 2026.