Farm bankruptcies in 2026 are running above the last two years’ pace. U.S. Courts counted 361 Chapter 12 filings in the 12 months ending September 30, 2026. The comparable totals were 293 in the year ending September 2025 and 202 in the year ending September 2024. That is a 23% rise from the latest prior period, and nearly 79% above the 2024 baseline.
These are rolling 12-month totals, not filings made only during calendar year 2026. Dividing by 12 gives a rough monthly pace of 30 filings in the latest period, against 24 and 17 in the two earlier periods. It does not predict the final 2026 total. The next federal quarterly release will move the window again.
| 12 months ending September 30 | Chapter 12 filings | Approximate monthly pace |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 202 | 17 |
| 2025 | 293 | 24 |
| 2026 | 361 | 30 |
Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, October 22, 2026. Monthly pace is the annual count divided by 12, rounded to the nearest whole filing.
Where the court filings are concentrated
The court’s district-level Table F-2 puts 101 filings in the Eighth Circuit, about 28% of the national count. That circuit includes Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and the Dakotas. Arkansas recorded 34; Minnesota, 19; Missouri’s two districts, 16; and Nebraska, 14. The Ninth Circuit recorded 53, the Eleventh 40, and the Seventh 36. These are counts, not rates per farm: a state with more eligible farms can have more filings without a higher risk for any one farm.
The court reports the district where a case was filed. It does not identify the debtor’s crop, livestock business, acreage or the event that pushed the operation into court. So a map of Chapter 12 cases cannot, by itself, prove that grain, dairy or cotton farms are filing most often.
Which farm businesses face the squeeze?
For the sector picture, the American Bankers Association and Farmer Mac’s agricultural lender survey is a useful second lens. In the 2025 survey, lenders were especially concerned about grain and cotton profitability; nearly 70% said they were very worried about grain farms. They expressed less concern about beef and poultry. Those are lender expectations, not a breakdown of Chapter 12 filers.
USDA’s September 2026 farm income forecast shows why one national bankruptcy number cannot describe every commodity. It projects lower 2026 receipts for rice, wheat, milk and hogs, while forecasting gains for corn, soybeans, cotton and cattle. A farm’s margin depends on its own yields, prices, costs and debt payments; rising receipts for a commodity do not guarantee a profitable operation.
Costs, credit, trade and drought
The same USDA forecast projects $492.8 billion in 2026 production expenses, up $21.2 billion, or 4.5%, from 2025. Fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner expenses are projected to rise 15.3%, and fuel and oil expenses 28.8%. USDA ERS also forecasts farm-sector debt of $605.1 billion, up 4.6% from 2025. These are sector-wide forecasts, not the debts of the 361 Chapter 12 filers. ABA’s lender survey names farm income, working capital and inflation among its leading concerns, while pointing to shifting trade policies and global grain supplies as pressures on grain producers.
Weather can remove what little room a tight balance sheet has left. Drought.gov reported that 49.5% of the lower 48 states were in drought as of October 27, 2026. Its Southern Plains update documented a dry summer and lingering precipitation deficits in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Drought can reduce output or raise feed and irrigation costs, but the court data do not tell us how many filings it caused. The same caution applies to trade policy: it can change market access and prices, but the filing tables do not assign a cause to each case.
What the Chapter 12 count means
Chapter 12 lets eligible family farmers and fishermen propose a three-to-five-year debt repayment plan while continuing operations. The national court total includes both groups; the published chapter total does not separate them. A filing is a serious sign of distress, but it is not the same as a farm closing, and the count does not capture every farm that sells land, restructures privately or leaves agriculture without a bankruptcy case.
The direction is clear even with those limits: the latest comparable court window is higher than both 2024 and 2025. Watch the next U.S. Courts quarterly release for whether that pace holds. Our War Room bankruptcy counter displays its own dated source and reporting period; check that date before comparing it with the newer rolling totals here. For the broader debt picture, see Crushed by Debt.
